By When President Yoweri Museveni warned that landlocked countries might one day fight for access to the Indian Ocean, the comment echoed far beyond the radio studio in Mbale City where it was made. For Uganda’s neighbours, especially Kenya, the statement carried an unsettling reminder of how fragile regional relations can be and how deeply intertwined their destinies are.
For decades, Uganda and Kenya have been bound by trade, geography, and history. Yet beneath the shared borders and friendly diplomatic exchanges lies a complex relationship marked by occasional flare-ups from fishing rights on Migingo Island to trade restrictions and fuel import disputes. Each disagreement, no matter how small, exposes how much one country needs the other.
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Uganda’s economy depends heavily on Kenya’s Port of Mombasa, through which most of its imports and exports pass. Every shipment of fuel, machinery, and consumer goods travels through the same corridor that links Mombasa to Kampala. Economists say even a temporary disruption could paralyse transport, spike fuel prices, and stall production lines.
Kenya, for its part, profits immensely from this arrangement. Its transport companies, clearing agents, and logistics firms earn millions from the Ugandan market. Port and customs fees collected from Uganda-bound goods form a vital part of Kenya’s regional trade revenue. Any breakdown in this partnership would ripple across both economies.
But history shows that even the closest neighbours can quarrel. In the late 2000s, the Migingo Island dispute brought the two nations close to confrontation when fishermen and police clashed over fishing rights. Diplomatic channels eventually calmed the waters, but the incident remains a symbol of how local tensions can quickly assume national importance.
More recently, Uganda’s 2024 decision to seek an alternative fuel import route through Tanzania tested the two governments’ cooperation once again. Though the issue was resolved amicably, it underscored Uganda’s growing anxiety about depending solely on Kenya for access to the sea a dependence that gives Museveni’s recent warning its emotional charge.
Analysts argue that a military confrontation is unlikely, but they agree that any disruption political or economic would hit Uganda harder. As a landlocked nation, Uganda’s vulnerability lies in its geography. Kenya’s advantage as a regional gateway, meanwhile, would diminish if relations deteriorated, costing jobs and investment opportunities.
Beyond economics, the East African Community itself would be shaken. Integration projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway and cross-border energy pipelines depend on trust among member states. A fallout between two founding members would stall the bloc’s ambitions of building a single market and shared infrastructure.
For now, Museveni’s remarks appear more symbolic than literal a reminder of the historical grievances felt by landlocked nations rather than a call to arms. Yet they expose a deeper truth: that East Africa’s peace depends not just on shared borders, but on shared understanding.
As trade convoys continue to roll across the Busia border and ferries glide over the waters of Lake Victoria, the two countries remain, as ever, bound by necessity. A war over the sea would leave no victor only neighbours with too much to lose.
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