By An Opinion By Rubaihayo Collins Paul
When historians recount the Russia-Ukraine war, one chapter will undoubtedly focus on President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decisions—many of which have shaped the trajectory of the conflict in ways that may ultimately prove disastrous for Ukraine. From turning down a favorable peace deal in 2022 to alienating key allies, Zelensky’s political gamble has left his country in a perilous position.
In the early months of 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators had reportedly reached an understanding that could have ended the war. Moscow sought assurances that Ukraine would abandon its NATO ambitions and protect the rights of Russian-speaking populations in the eastern regions—terms that, in retrospect, appear far more favorable than Ukraine’s current reality. However, under pressure from Western allies—most notably former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and U.S. President Joe Biden—Zelensky walked away from the deal.
Three years later, Ukraine has suffered immense losses. With an estimated 1.5 million casualties on both sides, vast destruction of infrastructure, and the loss of nearly a third of Ukraine’s territory, the cost of rejecting the deal has been staggering. The situation has forced Kyiv to re-enter negotiations, but now on far weaker terms.
A Political Miscalculation with Trump
Zelensky’s diplomatic troubles deepened recently when he mishandled negotiations recently with U.S. President Donald Trump, who had initially offered a deal that included a 50/50 split of Ukraine’s rare mineral resources. After initially agreeing, Zelensky attempted to renegotiate, embarrassing the U.S. president in the process. The move backfired spectacularly.
Trump, now the most powerful man in Ukraine’s strongest ally, reportedly took offense and distanced himself from Zelensky. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has since advised the Ukrainian president to repair relations with Trump, but by the time he returns to Washington, the offer may have worsened. Instead of a 50/50 split, Kyiv might now be looking at a 70/30 division in favor of the U.S.—if they get a deal at all.
Europe’s Hollow Support and Britain’s Empty Pledges
With American patience wearing thin, Zelensky turned to European leaders for support. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged a £3 billion loan—hardly a game-changer for a nation bleeding economically and militarily. Other European nations sent messages of solidarity, but little of tangible value. Luxembourg, a country with an army of barely 1,100 soldiers, “stands with Ukraine,” while other European states have offered symbolic but ultimately ineffective support.
Russia and Congo Step In
While Zelensky struggles to secure mineral deals with the West, Russia has stepped up, offering its vast mineral resources to the U.S. Meanwhile, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi has reportedly offered America access to his country’s mineral wealth in exchange for security assurances. These developments reduce Ukraine’s bargaining power even further.
The Endgame: Ukraine’s Position Weaker than Ever
As Ukraine finds itself cornered diplomatically, militarily, and economically, Zelensky’s leadership faces growing scrutiny. What began as a bold stand for sovereignty has turned into a protracted, devastating war that has left Ukraine isolated and war-weary. If he is eventually forced to return to the negotiating table, it will be with far fewer cards in hand. The question now is not whether Ukraine will negotiate, but how much it will have to sacrifice to secure what remains of its sovereignty.
For Zelensky, history may not be kind. His gamble—rooted in Western assurances that are now fading—may ultimately leave Ukraine with nothing
